2024 GCSE Results: Key Trends and Insights

The 2024 GCSE results for 16-year-olds in England reveal subtle shifts in grading patterns, indicating both a return to pre-pandemic norms and ongoing challenges within the education sector. The data shows a minor rise in the proportion of top grades awarded, alongside concerns about regional disparities and the need for more students to continue studying core subjects post-16.

Modest Rise in Top Grades
This year, 22.6% of GCSE grades awarded were between 9 and 7, reflecting a slight increase of 0.9% from last year’s 22.4%. This figure also surpasses the pre-pandemic rate of 21.8% seen in 2019, although it remains lower than the elevated levels observed during the pandemic, when grading was based on teacher assessments.

The proportion of students achieving the highest grade of 9 rose marginally by 0.1%, from 5% last year to 5.1% this year. This small uptick has been described as a sign that the system is returning to “dependable and trustworthy results,” suggesting that grading standards are stabilising after the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Decline in Pass Rates for English and Maths
Despite the increase in top grades, there has been a slight decrease in the number of students achieving a grade 4 or higher in English and maths. This decline means that more students will need to continue studying these essential subjects during their post-16 education, as a grade 4 is considered a basic pass required for further education and employment opportunities.

Persistent Regional Inequalities
The Education Secretary has raised concerns over the continued presence of “unacceptable, entrenched regional disparities” in the results, highlighting that while overall performance may have improved, significant gaps in educational achievement between different regions remain. Addressing these disparities continues to be a priority for policymakers.

Growth in GCSE Entries
The number of GCSE entries from 16-year-olds in England increased by 3.9%, rising from 5,021,493 last year to 5,214,826 this year. This growth is a result of the expanding secondary school population, which is expected to peak in 2026 due to a demographic surge from the early 2000s baby boom. On average, students took 7.81 GCSEs this year, consistent with the previous year, but slightly lower than the 7.9 average in 2019.

Adjustments to Grading After the Pandemic
The past few years have seen significant changes in the GCSE examination process due to the COVID-19 pandemic. With exams cancelled in 2020 and 2021, grades were determined by teacher assessments, resulting in a higher number of top grades. In 2022, grading was adjusted to help ease the transition back to pre-pandemic standards. Last year, Ofqual instructed exam boards to fully return to these standards, establishing a new baseline that has been maintained this year.

Considerations for Pandemic-Affected Students
It is important to note that this year’s GCSE students were in Year 7 when the first COVID-19 lockdown began. Acknowledging the ongoing impact of the pandemic on their education, students in maths, physics, and combined science were provided with exam aids for one final year. This measure was intended to help counteract the lingering effects of pandemic-related disruptions.

Conclusion
The 2024 GCSE results offer a detailed view of the current landscape of secondary education in England. While the slight increase in top grades suggests a return to stability, the drop in pass rates for core subjects and the persistence of regional disparities underscore ongoing challenges. As the education system continues to adapt in the post-pandemic era, these results will play a crucial role in shaping future educational policies and strategies.